Good evening everyone, I know the chatter has begun about next week, especially about Tuesday, so I want to address those concerns here, day-by day on what to expect over the next several days.
Friday and Saturday:
Sunny skies! We are not worried about any threat for severe weather or thunderstorms.
This will be the first of many active days across North Texas. A CAP will be in place across North Texas, but the latest model guidance does break it across portions of North Texas, mainly to the west of I-35W and to the north of I-20, the NW counties may see a severe storm or two, although this is not expected to be a widespread severe weather event. Showers and thunderstorms ( non-severe) will be possible across the rest of the area.
Instability will continue to increase across the region as southerly winds transport a whole lot of moisture and energy into the region. Right now it appears that the CAP will be quite formidable on Monday afternoon and evening, but if any storms do manage to break through it ( which the latest run of the GFS did indicate they may), then they could easily become severe, producing all modes of severe weather, luckily coverage of any of these storms would be very low given the CAP strength.
This is expected to be the most active day, at least for now. The model guidance continues to disagree on the placement of a key trough and thus the model guidance continues to disagree on where storms will occur in North Texas. The GFS generally keeps the storm activity confined to the far NW (Jack & Montague) counties, whereas the EURO would allow storms to occur across almost all of North Texas. Hopefully the CAP does end up holding as a substantial amount of instability will be in place, thus any storm that does form on Tuesday will be capable of producing all modes of severe weather, with significant hail being the caveat of it all.
This is yet another day where high instability will be in place. The cold front & dryline will converge over North Texas, likely breaking the CAP. Showers and Thunderstorms will likely occur on this day due to this factor, but the more widespread nature of the thunderstorms may help preclude the severe weather risk, regardless, all modes of severe weather would be possible with any storm, albeit likely smaller hail than Monday & Tuesday.
The cold front will start to retreat to the north as a warm front, putting North Texas back in the warm sector. The CAP will likely break again as a storm system pivots into the Southern Plains, and the SPC has already delineated the area under a risk for Thursday, all modes of severe weather will be possible area-wide, with more certainty that severe weather will occur on this day.
Friday and on:
The computer model guidance and synoptic pattern suggests that storm chances will continue nearly every day, with severe weather possible with the strongest storms, flooding will likely start to become an issue given the continued nature of these storms, but as per individual days it is too far to identify which may be the worst.
As you can see in the SPC outlooks, Tuesday and Thursday have already been identified as major risk days by the SPC, although uncertainty remains high and these areas can quite easily shift. The SPC may soon put out outlooks for Sunday, Monday, Wednesday, Friday and on as certainty increases as well. Stay tuned to DFW Stormwatch for the latest.If you haven't LIKED our Facebook Page yet, click like below to stay informed!
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