Good afternoon everyone, if you’ve been following the page over the past few days, you’ve seen that we have been watching Tuesday ( and the week as a whole) very closely. The Storm Prediction Center now has much of the coverage area, including Dallas and Fort Worth, under an enhanced risk for Tuesday with very large or perhaps giant hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds all possible with any storm that develops, mainly after 4 PM on Tuesday.
A strong CAP will be in place over North Texas during much of the day on Tuesday, but a strong disturbance should remove the CAP west of I-35W by 4-5 PM. Storms will begin to rapidly fire to the west of I-35W once this occurs, with the CAP off of the DFW Metro by 7 PM or so. Instability values will be VERY high in the range of 3,000 to as high as 6,000 J/KG, with 750-1,000 being the typical range needed for severe thunderstorms to occur. The main threat with any storm will be very large hail, possibly approaching or exceeding grapefruit in size. Tornadoes along with damaging winds will also be possible, with the tornado threat increasing the further north you go, at this time it appears North Texas will avoid the worst of the tornado threat, with a tornado outbreak possible to the north of the Red River. Tuesday night, another round of storms may develop to the west of DFW, which may congeal into a strong squall line, with damaging winds and tornadoes being the primary risk if a squall line does develop overnight. There is still some uncertainty on timing, but confidence continues to increase that a major severe weather event will occur on Tuesday afternoon, evening, and night.
Storm chances will continue on Wednesday and Thursday and a few storms could be severe, especially to the east of I-35E on Wednesday, all of this depends on the exact location of the dryline and how far east the Tuesday storms get. The main risk for severe thunderstorms and flooding will return on Friday and Saturday.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a D6 “slight risk” area for all of North Texas, meaning that confidence is already high enough to delineate a risk area over North Texas. Another strong disturbance will move over the southern plains on Friday and Saturday, triggering multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms across North Texas. Some of these storms could be severe, especially on Friday and Saturday afternoons. By Saturday, these storms will be prevalent enough that the flood risk will be increasingly high. Until Wednesday, the focus will be on Tuesday’s severe weather event, as Friday and Saturday remain too uncertain to highlight any specific severe weather risks. Stay tuned to DFW Stormwatch for the latest on Tuesday and Wednesday – Saturday.
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